Comments from a number of readers about the upcoming midterm elections. occasioned this follow up to a previous post.
The mainstream media’s assertion that married suburban women will abandon the GOP in droves over the Kavanaugh affair is pure narrative-spinning. They don’t cite numbers because the numbers show women believed Ford even less than men did. You can’t kid a kidder.
More actual numbers: Early voting and absentee ballots in 11/12 House districts that have reported so far–the 12th is in California–show Republicans turning out in greater numbers than Democrats.
That in itself is nothing to write home about. The story usually goes that Republicans outnumber Democrats in absentee voting, and then the Dems balance it out on election day.
What is remarkable is that A) Early Republican voting is surpassing even 2016 numbers, and B) Democrats are underperforming–not just below 2016 numbers, but below 2014 numbers.
Historically, Dems suffer a slump in voter turnout during midterms. They need presidential election-level turnout to get a blue wave. Instead, they’re already falling short of the previous midterms.
Remember that SJW’s always project. What’s really happening is that only about 20% of Democrat voters are fired up. That’s basically the wine aunt and male feminist set. Normal women don’t care. Neither do blacks and Latinos. The old blue-collar base is horrified that their own party might do to them what they did to Kavanaugh.
Listen to what the MSM and the Dem leadership are saying. They’re not talking like high energy people with confidence. Instead they’re freaking out over NPC memes. Meanwhile, their court astrologers like Nate Silver quietly walk back their predictions of triumph.
That stuff about flipping suburban seats blue is more projection in response to early voting results. Two Dem seats everybody thought were safe just moved into the toss-up category. Wyoming, which tracks changes in party affiliation, reports that 12,000 people switched parties, and 90% of them switched to the GOP.
These aren’t poll numbers, which are projections of opinion. These are hard, empirical data. What the data say is that Dems have lost momentum while GOP voters are fired up. And the GE keeps fanning the flames with tough talk on immigration.
Now, I’m not saying this is a done deal. Whatever you do, don’t get complacent. I still don’t see a Red Wave yet. What I am seeing is pretty much what I expected to happen, and at this point I think it’s enough to back up my prediction of the GOP narrowly holding the House while gaining 4 or 5 seats in the Senate.
Even if the Dems pull off an upset in the House, I’m not worried. The Lefty pollsters are already admitting that the GOP is guaranteed to keep the Senate, so the worst we’ll get is two more years of Congressional deadlock. Meanwhile, Cocaine Mitch will keep pushing through Trump’s judges while the GE mocks the Dems’ futile impeachment attempts. We’re either in for one night of exquisite triumph or barrels of fun spread out over two years. God really does give superabundantly.
Commenter Alex says:
You speak a lot of sense Brian. I’m inclined to see things your way—admittedly, I’m biased, but I’m also numbers guy and a cultural observer, and this ain’t 2012.
I’m not a numbers guy, but I am a cultural observer, and I take careful note of which numbers guys have reliable track records.
GOP absentee/early voter turnout is above 2016 levels, and corresponding Dem numbers are below 2014 levels. 2016 voter turnout was 60%, while 2014 turnout was 36%. Starting from this baseline it’s highly unlikely that Republican turnout will fall below 2014 or that Democrats beat their 2016 performance. With that in mind, here are the possible outcomes I see for the midterms:
- GOP 2016+/Dems 2014- = Red Tsunami.
- GOP 2016+/Dems 2014 = Red Wave.
- GOP 2016+/Dems 2016 = Red Tide.
- GOP 2016/Dems 2014- = Red Wave.
- GOP 2016/Dems 2014 = Red Tide.
- GOP 2016/Dems 2016 = Status quo.
- GOP 2014/Dems 2014- = Red Wave.
- GOP 2014/Dems 2014 = Status Quo.
- GOP 2014/Dems 2016 = Blue Wave.
There is one scenario out of the nine possible that results in a Blue Wave. Only one. That is for the Dems to turn out in presidential election numbers while Republicans turn out in numbers comparable to the prior midterms. Current data show the exact opposite happening. However, Republican turnout does tend to wane slightly on election day while Democrat turnout increases. That’s why I’m sticking with a GOP 2016/Dems 2014 Red Tide final tally.