Political commentators have been predicting that the outcome of Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s stormy Senate confirmation would have a noticeable impact on the upcoming midterm elections. Now the numbers are coming in, and we are witnessing an unmistakable Kavanaugh effect.
In case you haven’t been paying attention, the Republicans are going to remain in control of both the House and the Senate in a couple of weeks. Since their flawless victory over the Democrats in the fight to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, the Republican base is more energized now than at any point since November 2016.
Earlier I reported on the dramatic closing of Nate Silver’s much-hyped Enthusiasm Gap. The formerly ambivalent Republican base suddenly got fired up, and that was before Cocaine Mitch confirmed Judge Dredd.
Even had Kavanaugh been defeated, the current tightening of the Congressional races shouldn’t be a surprise. This is what always happens: Democrat pollsters gush about biased polling results showing the blue team overperforming for months as a propaganda tool to depress Republican turnout. Then they rapidly walk back their lavish forecasts so they can maintain their accuracy ratings. True to form, the almighty Blue Wave is breaking.
Overall, we’re moving nine races: five away from Democrats and four away from Republicans. Of the 73 races we’re tracking as at least somewhat competitive, 26 now lean toward the GOP, 16 lean toward the Dems and 31 are toss-ups.
Now, Fox News says that the Democrats only need to win 10 of those 31 toss-up races, but here’s an important factor that makes a blue team win more daunting than it sounds.
The thing about those toss ups, though, is that they are almost completely in Republican territory.
Even races the Dems thought were in the bag are slipping through their fingers. Young Kim is leading over Gil Cisneros in Califormia. Florida Democrats had to replace a popular candidate who won her primary by 77% after she died suddenly. Also in Florida, Republican Maria Elvira Salazar is pulling away from Clinton stooge Donna Shalala.
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| I wonder why. |
The Senate is looking even better as Zodiac is trouncing Paddy O’Bama. Elsewhere, Captain Marvel has pulled ahead of Problem Glasses to replace Flake, and the hag who crossed the Virgin Chad is going to pay.
Only your vote can summon the Red Tide, so take heart but don’t get complacent. And invest in popcorn futures.