Nate Silver’s vaunted Enthusiasm Gap, which was supposed to drive the blue wave and give Democrats control of Congress, has closed.
Just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.
In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were “very important.” Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie.
The tables have turned. Now it’s Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and it’s all thanks to Brett Kavanaugh.
The results come amid the pitched and hotly partisan confirmation battle over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. Multiple women have accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct when he was in high school and college. He categorically denies all the allegations. The FBI is conducting a supplemental investigation into the accusations that is expected to be wrapped up by the end of this week.
With Democrats already fired up for this election, the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has apparently had the effect of rousing a dormant GOP base.
“The result of hearings, at least in the short run, is the Republican base was awakened,” noted Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.
The Democrats’ midterm strategy revolved around making November’s elections a referendum on Trump. That play might have worked, thanks to that big, wall-shaped hole on the border. All they had to do was stick to the plan. But with their leadership now beholden to legions of emotionally incontinent freaks, the Senate Dems opted to hound Coach K like a pack of dogs chasing a squirrel.
By indulging their base’s unreasoning hatred of straight, white, Christian men, Democrats have shifted the midterms from a referendum on Trump to a referendum on normalizing third world gangster politics. The normies ain’t having it. Sixty percent of Americans say they want Kavanaugh confirmed if Flake’s FBI investigation clears him.
And the FBI investigation just cleared him.
White House deputy press secretary Raj Shah told CNN’s “New Day” that the FBI contacted 10 people as part of its reopened investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh, and interviewed nine of them – none of whom corroborated claims levied against the Supreme Court nominee.
But wait. It gets better.
Shah added that “Without getting in to the details, we feel very confident that when the senators have the opportunity to review this material, as they’re just beginning to right now, that they are going to be comfortable confirming Judge Kavanaugh” after they see the results of the investigation.
If I had to take a shot in the dark, I’d say those details the White House can’t get into include the sharp reversal of electoral fortunes among red state Democrats who said they’d vote against Justice K. I’d further say that based on McConnell’s filing of cloture and refusal to brook any more delays, the requisite arm-twisting has been done to get Kavanaugh his votes.
Seventh time’s the charm. The voters are satisfied that Kavanaugh is fit to serve on SCOTUS and will punish Congressional candidates who stubbornly oppose his confirmation. Heitkamp, McCaskill, Donnelly, and Manchin understand that voting against Justice K will detonate their careers. It may be too late for them already. Their only chance is to vote to confirm, and they know it.
What if the red state Democrats and/or Collins, Murkowski, and Flake decide to go down with the ship? Democrats, not Republicans, will take the blame, and the GOP will be looking at a ten-seat Senate majority while retaining control of the House.
In the off chance that any Democrats have read this far into the post, be sure to tell your leaders how you feel about them folding to the crazies and breaking the blue wave. They’ve dramatically raised the odds of a near future with GOP majorities in both Houses and SCOTUS, which will increase to 6-3 when the next Senate breezily confirms Trump’s pick to replace Ginsburg.