Another national election has come and gone. The 2018 US midterms treated voters to an electoral street brawl, complete with cheerleaders, hecklers, and odds makers barking from the sidelines. Numbers guys on both sides predicted big wins for their respective teams. With voter turnout at record highs, the only question seemed to be whether we were in for a blue wave or a red tide.
The actual result has left almost everyone scratching their heads. To use a personal example, I forecast Republicans eking out a narrow House majority while gaining 4 or 5 Senate seats. We now know my first prediction was 180 degrees backwards, since it was the Democrats who won the House by a razor-thin margin.
But that was the only major victory Democrats could claim last night–and a feat hardly worth boasting about. The all-powerful blue wave proved to be pollster agitprop after all, as Dems fell far short of the 70 seats that define a wave election. They also failed to retake the Senate, actually losing 4 seats, which confirmed my prediction for the upper chamber. As a final slap in the face, voters denied the Democrats a majority of the country’s governorships.
It’s still early, but we know enough to make some useful observations about the midterm results.
Let’s take a look at the House first.
- The polls were indeed wrong. The twist is that they actually erred on the side of Republicans in tight races.
- Democrats’ election day turnout was sufficient to mitigate the massive GOP early voting lead.
- Blacks and Latinos still voted Democrat at Soviets-voting-for-Stalin levels. #BuildTheWall
- The MSM pundits were right about Midwestern women in the suburbs defecting from the GOP. #RepealThe19th
- The 40 cuckservative reps who retired for fear of the blue wave cost the GOP its incumbent advantage. Republicans could have weathered all the other factors above if not for this blunder.
- Nearly all the defeated GOP congressmen opposed Trump and/or refused to let him campaign for them.
Now let’s do the Senate.
- The Kavanaugh Effect was real. Donnelly, Heitkamp, and McCaskill, who voted against Justice K’s confirmation, all went down to defeat.
- Trump’s campaign strategy paid off. His focus on Indiana and Florida, for example, helped the GOP win close races.
- Republican senators’ eleventh-hour Trumpist conversion spared them the voters’ wrath, unlike their obstinate counterparts in the House.
- So much for the Narrative that Trump’s populist nationalism is a fad. If he were as unpopular as the Left says, Dems would have taken the Senate.