Site icon Kairos – By Brian Niemeier

The Bravalanche

Bravalanche

A concept introduced on this blog that’s gained some traction in newpub is the neopatronage model. Though still developing, this is the proposition that societal changes will cause a shift away from the old entertainment business model. Instead of artists selling their rights to corporations in exchange for access to a vertically integrated distribution network, art will be funded by audiences directly. This arrangement will let artists keep creative control and a larger chunk of the profits while giving patrons the books, music, and movies they want instead of thinly veiled lectures.

It’s worth noting that I’ve put my mouth where my money is. I broke out as an author on Amazon, but as that outlet succumbed to cancel culture in fits and starts, I sought out a mid-term source of more stable income. That source turned out to be you, the readers. And we’ve done rather well getting the books we want funded. Not only have each of our crowdfunders beaten the standard oldpub advance, my Indiegogo proceeds have eclipsed my Amazon royalties. That is to say I’ve tested a nascent form of neopatronage myself, and it’s worked pretty well for everyone involved.

Now, even I thought that the tradeoff for neopatronage’s greater freedom and flexibility would be a leveling of the pay scale. Demolishing the walls around the gatekeepers’ plantations would remove the artificial bottleneck they maintained. That would mean more artists could earn a living, but there would be no more superstars.

Then along came A list fantasy author Brandon Sanderson to prove me right and wrong with a single masterstroke.

The lowdown is that Sanderson is offering four all-new novels through his personal publishing company. In an even bolder departure from how things are done in oldpub, he’s decided to crowdfund the books’ publication. This play isn’t quite as risky as it sounds, since his first Kickstarter raised over $6 million last year. He no doubt wagered he could replicate that success, so he bet everything on his readers.

To say that Sanderson’s gamble has paid off would be the understatement of the decade. We’re three days into his new campaign, and it’s already approaching $20 million.

Of course, the woke oldpub tokens whose bills Sanderson pays came out to cope, rationalize, and damn him with faint praise.

The reality that’s chipping away at the bubble Sanderson’s lesser rivals live in is that they are parasites dependent on him for their undeserved sinecures. Finding out that the make-believe world where you and your coreligionists hand each other awards exists at the pleasure of the guy you’ve been snubbing has got to inflict serious cognitive dissonance.

To illustrate the difference between Brandon Sanderson and the SFF death cultists, multiple Hugo Award winner John Scalzi made waves seven years ago when he signed a ten-year, 13-book contract with Tor Books for $3.4 million. Brandon Sanderson has earned more than five times Scalzi’s decade-long deal in three days.

Scalzi does make the point that other authors are not Brandon Sanderson and so cannot expect the same level of success. Of course, he’s right. I certainly haven’t approached Sanderson’s record-breaking haul. New authors just starting out are better advised to play the Powerball than aim to crowdfund twenty mil.

But that’s a red herring. Neopatronage needn’t give authors a guarantee of becoming millionaires to justify itself. It just needs to be more lucrative on average than oldpub.

The question every new author should ask is how long the newpub route would take to beat the boilerplate oldpub contract. In oldpub, a new author will give up all rights to his book in exchange for an average advance of $2,000. This is a loan recouped from royalties. New authors get a royalty rate of 15%. That means they do not see a dime of royalty earnings until 15% of book sales surpasses $2,000.

In contrast, crowdfunding platforms like Kickstarter usually take around a 10% cut of total funds raised. That means a new author need only raise $2,200 on Kickstarter to beat oldpub’s contract. From personal experience, I can tell you that goal is easily achievable with a modest-sized blog, newsletter, and social media following. More established newpub authors like Jon Del Arroz have raised many times that amount.

The oldpub model is obsolete. What Sanderson has done is prove that fact beyond a shadow of a doubt, while providing a proof of concept for the budding neopatronage system. Furthermore, he’s shown the latter model to be even more robust than expected, able even to support rock star-level artists. All in one fell swoop.

Years ago, I followed newpub pioneers like J.A. Konrath in predicting that one day, an A list author would hire a team, start his own publishing imprint, and go it alone. That author would erase the indie stigma, destroy oldpub’s prestige, and give newpub the social proof to reach its full potential. That day has come, and that author is Brandon Sanderson.

Just as we knew in our hearts it would be.

May the Bravalanche sweep away the decrepit New York publishing racket with all its perfumed princes and parasites.

 

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