What goes around comes around.
But somehow, the book boomers didn’t see the book boomerang coming.
In 2021, avid readers notably increased their reading.
However, in the first six months of 2023, print book sales in the US declined by 2.7% compared to the same period in 2022, decreasing from 363.4 million to 353.5 million.
That was in June. Publishers Weekly reported that print book sales fell 5.7% in the second week of September.
But back to the OP:
US bookstore sales were about $9 billion in 2021, up from $6.5 billion in 2020.
However, sales in the first four months of 2022 were down 23% compared to the same period in 2019.
In the first half of 2023, sales increased by 6.9% over the previous year, reaching $3.86 billion from $3.61 billion.
So we’re seeing a yo-yo effect that had book sales fall by almost a quarter last year, rise slightly, then dip again.
It’s not just print, either.
The trend is evident in the eBook sector, too.
In the US, eBook revenue saw a growth of 11.7% in 2020 compared to 2019, and by October 2021, it had reached $84 million, as reported by AAP.
However, by February 2023, eBook revenues experienced a decline, being down 4.8% for the month compared to February 2022, amounting to $87.5 million.
On a personal note, I’ve been in publishing for eight years, and conditions on the inside are getting weird.
We’ve seen previous slumps take out backlist writers and small publishers before. But now there are rumblings of name authors and established houses feeling the pinch.
There are rumors of high midlist authors losing their contracts and at least one substantiated report of an editorial layoff at Baen.
Then you have Amazon going even farther off the reservation than usual.
On its own, each of these developments might warrant a raised eyebrow, but wouldn’t be cause for panic.
Taken together?
Let’s just say that everybody who’s still dependent on the Amazon model should be sweating right now.
So what’s driving the downturn?
Ask around online, and you’ll hear theories ranging from algorithm shenanigans to the end of virus lockdowns sending commuters flocking back to audio, to series burnout.
But there’s a major factor everybody’s missed.
A factor that coincides with the late summer/early fall sales decline documented above.
One that’s been a frequent topic of debate around here.
The end of the pandemic brought another change besides a possible shift back to audio.
It brought an end to the student loan payment pause.
And the October restart date is just for federal loans. Private loans reentered repayment a couple of months ago.
Millions of people suddenly getting additional 3-figure monthly bills for the first time in 3 1/2 years is going to affect discretionary consumer spending.
That sucking sound you hear is money being vacuumed out of the book market and into the government’s coffers.
Now add in runaway inflation, rising interest rates, and outrageous housing costs.
It doesn’t pain a pretty picture.
The old economic saying had it that the entertainment industry was recession proof.
What does that make the current state of affairs, then?
A dose of poetic justice for MammonCons who answered fraud victims’ pleas for relief with “Just pay it off, snowflake!”
That’s what.
If your income depends on consumer spending, and the largest cohort of consumers must suddenly divert a big chunk of their budget to paying Uncle Sam, your income will go down.
The Facebook Boomers’ chants of “Muh taxes!” in response to debt relief plans shows their inability to consider second and third-order consequences.
There’s around $2 trillion in outstanding student debt now on the books. north of 90% of it is held by the federal government.
So insisting that debt slaves pay off their usurious burden equates to advocating that they pay the government, which most BoomerCons claim to hate.
Plus, the whole “Student debt relief has to be paid for with taxes” meme was always a canard. Tax increases have to be passed by Congress. The Executive could just write down the debt, and Congress just not raise taxes. It is in fact that simple.
But let’s assume legislators did pass a tax hike to “pay for” erasing a bunch of numbers off a spreadsheet. Guess what? John Q. Taxpayer is already on the hook for that 2 trillion anyway. He was the second the feds bought the debt.
If you are a taxpaying American, your choices are:
- Let the Dept. of Education forgive the debt, let Congress pass some kind of symbolic tax increase, and pay more in taxes.
- Thwart all attempts at student debt relief and see your wallet shrink as consumer markets contract and inflation rages.
- Block usury relief as in 2 above, but half the debtors default, and you’re left holding the bag for $1 trillion anyway.
- Support a debt jubilee, pay no extra taxes, and enjoy the deflationary effects of removing $2 trillion from the money supply.
It still baffles me why, but some people find this a tough call.
Whatever. Enjoy $8 a gallon gas and cascading stock market crashes wiping out your retirements.
At least you taught those entitled kids to take personal responsibility for the consequences of basket weaving degrees at Starbucks.
Or something.
The ray of hope in all this doom and gloom is that the Neopatronage model has proven quite resilient.
It’s a bit early for definitive conclusions, but diversifying your income streams to cover the blockbuster, mid-market, and long tail segments seems to insulate creative enterprises from downturns in one or more areas.
My blockbuster novel, The Burned Book, is funding now on Indiegogo.
Thanks to my awesome backers, we hit our first goal within five hours and our first stretch goal within a week.
Speaking of which, my first Soul Cycle short story in seven years, “The Voyage of Egeria” is now available to Indiegogo backers!
So claim the new story, the new book, and tons of other sweet perks. And stay tuned for the big reveal of our second mind-blowing stretch goal!
Bonus: In this week’s patron exclusive post, I review the 1999 cinematic icon Fight Club. Neopatrons get exclusive access to notes, outlines, and first drafts from me and participating clients, plus the chance to leave structured feedback. To get your choice of recurring bennies, including each week’s exclusive post and access to our elite Discord, join my Patreon or my SubscribeStar today.