The major woes facing Hollywood are the movie industry’s worst-kept secret. But did A list director Steven Spielberg deliver a grim prophecy over a decade ago that predicted Hollywood’s implosion?
A series of interviews the Indiana Jones and Saving Private Ryan director gave in 2013 suggest a surprising answer.
Steven Spielberg on Wednesday predicted an “implosion” in the film industry is inevitable, whereby a half dozen or so $250 million movies flop at the box office and alter the industry forever.
I’d consider actors who’d made a living by their craft until recently having to take jobs as Uber drivers a significant alteration.
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George Lucas agreed that massive changes are afoot, including film exhibition morphing somewhat into a Broadway play model, whereby fewer movies are released, they stay in theaters for a year and ticket prices are much higher. His prediction prompted Spielberg to recall that his 1982 film E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial stayed in theaters for a year and four months.
George Lucas agreed that massive changes are afoot, including film exhibition morphing somewhat into a Broadway play model, whereby fewer movies are released, they stay in theaters for a year and ticket prices are much higher. His prediction prompted Spielberg to recall that his 1982 film E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial stayed in theaters for a year and four months.
Lucas and Spielberg told USC students that they are learning about the industry at an extraordinary time of upheaval, where even proven talents find it difficult to get movies into theaters. Some ideas from young filmmakers “are too fringe-y for the movies,” Spielberg said. “That’s the big danger, and there’s eventually going to be an implosion — or a big meltdown. There’s going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even a half-dozen megabudget movies are going to go crashing into the ground, and that’s going to change the paradigm.”
Lucas lamented the high cost of marketing movies and the urge to make them for the masses while ignoring niche audiences. He called cable television “much more adventurous” than film nowadays.
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Spielberg added that he had to co-own his own studio in order to get Lincoln into theaters.
“The pathway to get into theaters is really getting smaller and smaller,” Lucas said.
Threre or four megabudget bombs, he said?
- The Marvels
- The Flash
- Wish
- Indiana Jones 5
That’s just in 2023, ten years after Spielberg issued his Hollywood propehcy.
And we could name more.
What can’t continue won’t continue.
Some say the sky is falling, but I don’t interpret Spielberg’s Hollywood prophecy as apocalyptic.
Instead, it’s the result of Hollywood’s decades-long degeneration from chasing dollars to pushing nihilistic propaganda.
Now that the disintegration of Western society—due in large part to the entertainment industry—has hit critical mass, there isn’t enough social cohesion to sustain a culture-wide hit.
That’s why it’s getting harder and harder for movies to make it to theaters even as theater revenues drop. There are no movies that everyone goes to see anymore.
Nor are is there a next generation of directors being prepped to succeed the likes of Spielberg and Lucas on the radar.
Hollywood has no bench and, increasingly, no audience. Its career-making power is about tapped out.
Again, I don’t foresee doomsday for the film industry; more like a drastic upheaval of a kind we haven’t since since the 1970s. Only this time it migyht proceed in a good direction.
That means the aspiring class of professional film makers should bide their time, hone their craft, and build their platforms.
Time has proven Spielberg right. The old paradigm is imploding. We need talented creators waiting in the wings to step in and rebuild.
And a key strategy for doing that reconstruction will be leveraging Neopatronage.
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